THE WHITE HOUSE: President Clinton is taking a gamble that could have
tremendous implications not only for the future of the Balkans and American
foreign policy, but for Clinton's own re-election in 1996. The deployment
does not have the widespread support enjoyed by George Bush's dispatch of
troops to the Persian Gulf in 1990, and because of the complexity of the
conflict and the somewhat unclear objectives of the mission, prompts
politically deadly comparisons to America's doomed intervention in Vietnam.
While these factors make for nail-biting at the White House -- and made
necessary a one-year limit on the commitment -- the consequences of further
inaction are also unpalatable. Clinton's appearance of weakness and
vacillation was politically damaging to his image both at home and as a world
leader. Should the mission be a success, he will reap huge political benefits
in both arenas. Earlier this month Clinton reluctantly signed what he felt
was an unnecessarily costly defense spending bill because he did not want to
jeopardize funds for the mission. He recently won the support of former
presidents Bush and Gerald Ford for the mission.
THE SENATE: As Senate Majority Leader and Clinton's leading challenger in the
1996 election, Bob Dole's reaction on the troop
deployment was anxiously awaited throughout Washington. Despite consistently
opposing Clinton on both domestic and foreign issues, Dole surprised many
observers by agreeing to deliver the Senate's support of the mission. Some
feel that Dole's brush with death during World War II has instilled in him an
unwavering support for the American military and his commander-in-chief when
U.S. troops are at risk. Dole also realizes that the Constitution gives
Congress little power to block the deployment. "The Congress cannot stop this
troop deployment from happening," Dole said in the Senate on Dec. 2. "If we
would try to cut off funds, we would harm the men and women in the military
who have already begun to arrive in Bosnia." Still, Dole is pressuring
Clinton to narrowly limit the scope of the mission. He and Sen. John McCain
(R-AZ) plan to introduce resolution this week that will express support for the
troops but add conditions: detailing the permissible activities of U.S.
troops; ensuring that U.S. commanders have full authority to severely
retaliate against any attack; denying authorization of funds for some
"nation-building" activities provided for by the peace agreement; and
assuring that the Bosnian Muslims are armed and trained to defense themselves
before the U.S. forces withdraw. And Dole has differed with Clinton over
Bosnia policy in the past, sponsoring a bill this spring to end the arms
embargo to the Bosnian Muslims.
Furthermore some Senators, like Phil Gramm (R-TX), who is Dole's chief rival
for the Republican presidential nomination, and Majority Whip Trent Lott (R-MS), oppose the mission outright.
THE HOUSE: While Dole and his fellow Senators have chosen not to riot over
Bosnia, the House, a more unruly place by nature, will not be such an easy
sell for Clinton. Home to strains of isolationism, high distrust of Clinton
and 73 Republican freshman always eager for a high-profile fight, the House
has already voted twice to oppose any deployment not authorized by Congress.
And key House figures like Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-TX), have
indicated that a resolution supporting the Bosnia action may not win
approval. Just days after the President announced his decision, the House
National Security Committee summoned administration officials, including
Defense Secretary William Perry, to the Capitol for a round of tense
hearings, where Chairman Floyd D. Spence (R-S.C.) and Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA),
expressed doubts about the mission. The House's support is so tenuous that
the Senate may pass its own resolution of support for the mission, rather
than a joint resolution that would also require House support. Speaker Newt
Gingrich has said he will try to accommodate Clinton's request for a vote
before Dec. 14.