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RACING FOR THE DOLE POSITION
Posted March 19, 1996

Last week, we reminded ourselves that, as the smoke clears from the Republican primary war, Congress is returning to work. This week, let's make note of the fact that Congress and the presidential campaign -- especially in 1996 -- are not entirely distinguishable. And even as the presidential campaign takes shape around the country, another election is sparking whispers in Washington corridors. It's possibly the most insider contest in politics: the race to succeed Bob Dole as Senate Majority Leader.

Before he is replaced -- if he is replaced -- Dole has some leading left to do. With Dole's nomination locked up, it is clear that for the first time the Majority Leader of the Senate will be challenging an incumbent president for his job. Could anything be less conducive to getting laws passed? For the time being, Dole says he wants the Senate to produce more legislation, and reach agreement with Clinton on a budget deal that could include Medicare, Medicaid and welfare. But in such a politically charged environment, it will be next to impossible for either man to make a deal with the other, for fear of being branded the "loser" in the bargain.

Dole has begun to move along legislation like a long stalled line-item veto bill, which could give Clinton a new advantage in budget battles. That's a sign that the Senator feels getting things done is more valuable to him than freezing out Clinton.

But now that Dole might be leaving the Senate for the White House, the maneuvering is underway to succeed him as Majority Leader. For a time, even campaigning looked like it might force Dole to step down, although now that his opposition is gone Dole can spend more time in the Senate, where he is most at home and where he can use his leadership post as a platform from which to challenge Clinton.

Why does it matter who succeeds Dole? At face value, the contest to be Majority Leader seems to have a lot to do simply with every Senator's sense of self-importance, and matters of institutional pride like the ability to make committee appointments. That's a big part of it. But the Senate Majority Leader has great power over what legislation will be considered and when, and whether or not a bill will come out of Congress for the President's consideration at all.

The Majority Leader is elected by members of his party, and in the Senate, where decorum and dignity are its most precious commodities, the jockeying is oh-so subtle. But it's also oh-so real, and offers a precious glimpse into the Senate's veiled world of seniority, hierarchy and ambition. Here's a look at the leading contenders in the contest -- which will be moot should Clinton be re-elected -- to succeed Bob Dole as Senate Majority Leader:

LOTT: The Senator from Mississippi is Majority Whip of the Senate, and the front-runner in the subtle race to replace Dole. He has made his desire for the post more explicit than his competitors, and has the advantage of having run the Senate while Dole was away on the campaign trail this winter.

But he and Dole aren't exactly old chums. In 1994 Lott embarrassed Dole by beating out Dole's choice for Whip, Sen. Alan Simpson, R-WY (who has since announced his retirement) by one vote. It was no secret that Lott was an agent of Sen. Phil Gramm, R-TX, who was challenging Dole for the Republican nomination, and that Lott favored Gramm over Dole.

Lott, who vigorously opposes gay rights and sponsored "three-strikes and you're out" sentencing legislation in the Senate, once said in an interview that Republicans and Democrats "seem to think with different sides of their brains ... Republicans [are] the party of Mars, but we would like to have the Venus side of the American society in our party too."

COCHRAN: Sen. Thad Cochran also represents Mississippi, and in fact has more seniority than Lott. Seniority is the kind of largely meaningless concept that the Senate takes very seriously, and thus it is somewhat of an affront to Cochran that he is outranked by Lott's Whipdom. He was a booster of Dole's man Simpson in the Whip race, and frowned on Lott's alliance with Gramm. (Cochran, as chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, is third in the leadership hierarchy of the Senate Republicans.)

Cochran also has a rigidly conservative record in the Senate, and although he keeps a low profile, he holds seats on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, where he has become skilled at squeezing out goodies for his home state.

NICKLES: Sen. Don Nickles of Oklahoma is reportedly the man Dole hopes will succeed him. Nickles, who was elected to the Senate at the remarkably young age of 31 in 1980, is another fervent Senate conservative. As chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, Nickles is considered a rising star within the party.

Nickles, who represents a major oil-producing state, is a champion of oil and gas interests, and led the successful fight to repeal the national speed limit.

DARK HORSES: Several names have been speculatively floated including, in descending order of probability: Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Orrin Hatch of Utah, Alfonse D'Amato of New York and Ted Stevens of Alaska. Of these, Domenici is by far the most credible. As chairman of the Senate Budget Committee he is one of the Senate's legislative heavyweights and had a greater role than perhaps any other member in hammering out Congress' balanced-budget plan, but is much cooler to tax cuts than many other leading members of his party today.


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