POLITICAL PLAYBOOK ![]() Steve Forbes: The Choice of a New Generation? Steve Forbes Search The Power of Advertising The Poll Watch Steve Forbes Profile |
Posted February 6, 1996
Imagine the frustration: you've been planning and organizing your presidential campaign for over a year. You've attended literally hundreds of fund-raisers, spent endless hours on the phone in the often demeaning process of scraping up the millions you must have for a shot at the White House. You heave a heavy sigh of relief when Colin Powell decides against a nomination that was his for the taking, and prepare to present yourself as the alternative to front-running Senator Bob Dole. This was the situation this fall for candidates like Phil Gramm and Lamar Alexander, who bragged that they had built up the cash and campaign organizations needed for serious challenge against Dole. In a crowded field of nine GOP candidates, everyone agreed, the race would come down to Dole and the one man who could present himself as the alternative to the Senate Majority Leader. Enter Steve Forbes. He joined the race in late September -- almost the stroke of midnight on the Presidential campaign timeline. Although he lacked political experience or a high public profile, Forbes had money. About $400 million of it. And, because he is financing his own campaign and not accepting federal campaign funds, Forbes doesn't have to observe the campaign spending limits that restrict other candidates. The result has been a phenomenal, multi-million dollar advertising blitz that has created a blinding Forbes explosion in Iowa and New Hampshire, sites of the first crucial '96 primary votes. Forbes is now in second place among the GOP candidates in most polls, and in some is even ahead of Dole. And through it all, candidates like Gramm and Alexander have been forced to watch as Forbes reduces them to virtual irrelevance. But now that Forbes has commandeered both the Republican presidential race and the attention of the national press (he appeared last week on the covers of both Time and Newsweek magazines), the inevitable backlash has begun. Whereas he was once ignored by his opponents, Forbes is now routinely the target of attack ads and campaign-trail criticism, and his record is receiving increasing scrutiny. Here's a look at some of the aspects of the Forbes campaign that are coming into sharper focus. FLAT TAX: Forbes' rise is built on his proposal for a 17% flat tax on income, and an end to all exemptions. Forbes, a subscriber to the theory of "supply-side" economics that dictated much of Ronald Reagan's economic policy, believes that the economic growth triggered by big tax cuts would compensate for projected losses in tax revenue, and will create jobs for all Americans. He argues that the tax code is one of the most corrupting influences in Washington politics, and that scrapping it will limit the ability of politicians to cut corrupt deals. Critics argue that there is little or no historical evidence to support Forbes' optimistic claims about tax relief causing runaway growth, and that only a flat tax of about 22% can pull in enough revenue to avoid breaking the federal bank. It is a little surprising, at a time when the public and politicians alike are in widespread agreement that the budget deficit must be reduced, if not balanced altogether, that voters have so far been trusting of Forbes' promise his plan won't explode the deficit. Opponents also point out that a 17% percent rate without exemptions results in a big tax cut for the rich, and an increase on lower-income Americans, who would be hit hard by an end to the home mortgage interest deduction. But never mind. Voters like the simple, anti-Washington thrust of the flat tax idea, and now Forbes' opponents want in on the action. Phil Gramm is now touting a flat tax rate which is (by pure coincidence, of course) one percent lower than Forbes'. ADVERTISING: Forbes has spent more than $10 million on ads. Two-thirds of them have been negative attacks on his opponents. He has accused Bob Dole of voting repeatedly for tax increases. He accused Phil Gramm of cooperating with George Bush's 1990 budget deal that raised taxes, although Gramm ultimately voted against the deal. He mocked Lamar Alexander's red flannel shirt. And when his rivals have hit back, Forbes has quickly returned their fire. Coming from a political novice who professes to be above Washington politics as usual, his negative ads surprised some. But others noted the presence of two advisors to Forbes, Tom Ellis and Carter Wrenn, who ran the famously nasty campaigns of North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms, and the similarity of some Forbes ads to old Helms spots. Those include the notorious "white hands" ad, aired during Helms' 1990 race against a black opponent, that depicted a white man crumpling up a rejection letter for a job awarded to a less-qualified black. HIS RECORD: Suddenly forced to take him seriously, Forbes' opponents and the press have been combing through his past to determine his position on issues other than the flat tax. Early indications are that Forbes' written record of his positions on a balanced budget amendment to the constitution and on anti-abortion laws -- both of which he now supports -- may leave the Republican party's conservative wing skeptical of his conservative credentials. Also, a Fortune magazine article recently suggested that as the publisher of Forbes magazine, Steve Forbes intervened in his publication's editorial content to make sure advertisers were given favorable coverage. And Bob Dole has been airing ads charging that in his one governmental position, on the board that oversaw Radio Free Europe in the 1980s, Forbes presided over bureaucratic bloat and allowed almost $300,000 of taxpayer money to be spent on the redecoration of a friend's residence. Forbes also continues to refuse incessant calls from opponents and the media that he release his income tax returns, saying the demands are a "diversion" from his message. Some speculate that Forbes' returns could be a literal embarrassment of riches, filled with extravagance and unseemly deductions. THE DRAFT: Forbes graduated from Princeton University in 1970, when young Americans were still being shipped off to the jungles of Vietnam. The number Forbes drew in the draft lottery seemed a likely ticket to the war. But after lining up on the waiting list for the New Jersey National Guard, Forbes was accepted upon graduation. There is no indication that Forbes received special treatment, but at the very least Forbes is likely to be vulnerable to the charge that he avoided a war that he says he did not oppose. |
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