POLITICAL PLAYBOOK ![]() Candidate Homepages:
Bob Dole Election Coverage on the Web: ElectionLine: ABC News, The Washington Post and Newsweek join forces to bring you this giant site dedicated to Campaign 96. The creators are promising real-time election coverage sometime soon. AllPolitics: CNN and Time team up to cover all the standard campaign territory. Unfortunately, it's poor design makes it difficult to understand the site's structure. PoliticsUSA: While not devoted specifically to election coverage, this is perhaps PoliticsUSA's greatest asset -- it avoids the overkill. The site's simple interface and strong journalism combine to make this an enjoyable stop for any political junkie. CBS Campaign '96: It covers just about everything and has a nice eduaction section, but it's just so ... CBS. |
Posted February 15, 1996
Not one delegate was actually chosen in Iowa on Monday night. But after another of its quadrennial caucuses, the land of corn fields and pig farmers spat out a reshuffled crop of contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. The political junkies went nuts, but Monday's caucus was the electoral equivalent of the NBA All-Star game: Media overkill, people slam-dunking over each other, and in the end -- unless someone gets injured -- it doesn't amount to much. Of course, there were injuries: Phil Gramm is out for the season, for instance. But Iowa has traditionally predicted the future about as reliably as a deck of Tarot cards. Think back to 1988: the Christian soldiers marched Pat Robertson into second place, but he didn't make it much farther. Richard Gephardt topped the Democratic field that year, and you may have noticed that he's still a Congressman. George Bush won in 1980, but he had to wait until 1988 for the Oval Office -- and he placed just *third* that year. So stay tuned for New Hampshire, whose February 20th primary is a better indicator of the way other states will choose their delegates and how the field will shape up over the long haul. But let's face it: the horse race is fun. So here's a roundup of the candidates' results versus their expectations in Iowa, and how they must do in New Hampshire to stay alive: BOB DOLE In the past month, thanks largely to almost $20 million Forbes dollars, the once invincible Senate Majority Leader has been the Incredible Shrinking Candidate. He needed a first place showing at all costs to protect his status as the man to beat, and to stave off a media frenzy invoking the images of his past two failed campaigns (including 1988, when he also won Iowa). Same story in New Hampshire. But Dole has money and endorsements that make him hard to beat down the road. PATRICK BUCHANAN Going into Iowa, Buchanan had the twin advantages of momentum from his victory in the February 6 Louisiana caucus and from the strong contingent of Christians participating in Iowa. His surprising finish gives his campaign a credibility previously lacking, but he is not a real contender, especially in a general election. His Iowa showing means added pressure to produce in New Hampshire, where Buchanan won 37 percent in 1992 and where he has the endorsement of the state's biggest paper. LAMAR ALEXANDER Lazarus rises. Nearly written off as bland and lacking a base, Alexander has joined a four-man race with Dole, Buchanan and Forbes. And while Lamar's got momentum from his strong Iowa showing (thanks to a local organization he spent a year building), he could lose it if he fails to beat out one of the major contenders. As a former Southern Governor, Lamar should flourish if he can emerge strong from the chilly north. STEVE FORBES How the mighty have fallen. The covers of Newsweek and Time one week, political implosion the next. Steve Forbes downplays his underwhelming finish (spurred, some say, by his ceaseless blast of negative ads). He has previously explained a plan to be fourth in Iowa, third in New Hampshire, second in Delaware and first in Arizona. But his support is in a free-fall, and he needs second-place next week to avoid looking like a flash in the pan. Hope lies in the fact that New Hampshire depends less than Iowa on local organization, which Forbes lacks. PHIL GRAMM After declaring that he needed to win the Louisiana caucus and then losing, Gramm announced he absolutely had to place in the top four in Iowa -- and didn't. Both results were serious disappointments, but the Texas Senator's own words have helped to dig his grave. Gramm may have come across as too sour for most voters, but not nasty enough for the kind that are riled up by a Pat Buchanan. Once seen as the biggest threat to Dole, Gramm bowed out of the race on Feb. 14, saying ``when the voters speak I listen, especially when they say someone else's name.''. ALAN KEYES, RICHARD LUGAR, MORRY TAYLOR, BOB DORNAN Of these four, Lugar is the only one who could become president without a military coup. Dornan received fewer votes than "No Preference." What little Keyes won was thanks to strong pro-life currents in the caucus crowd. And Morry Taylor looks like he will have spent about $5 million for a footnote in history. |
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