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Primary Schedule
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South Carolina primary results:

Bob Dole -- 45 %
Pat Buchanan -- 29
Steve Forbes -- 13
Lamar Alexander -- 11
Alan Keyes -- 2
Richard Lugar -- 0
Morry Taylor -- 0

Delegates to date:

Bob Dole -- 77
Steve Forbes -- 60
Pat Buchanan -- 39
Lamar Alexander -- 11
Alan Keyes -- 4
Richard Lugar -- 0
Morry Taylor -- 0

Do you remember the scenes from "Star Wars," when the Millennium Falcon's blast into warp speed would suddenly blur the stars into long streaks of light? Well, hold on, because the beginning of March has had that effect on the race for the Republican presidential nomination. In a blurred frenzy over the next month, 27 states will hold primaries and caucuses, awarding over half of the party's 1,990 delegates. By the time it's all over, the nomination may well be wrapped up. And although so far the political winds have shifted on an absurd, almost daily, basis, Bob Dole's win in Saturday's South Carolina primary suggests that he will be the triumphant Han Solo of the Republican field. But a major test will come in Thursday's New York primary, which could seal a Dole victory or leave him mortally wounded.

Even Han Solo got frozen in carbon along the
way ...
Before Saturday, Bob Dole was starting to look like a goner. Remember that as the race got started, Dole was the preordained inheritor of the nomination. His toughest opponent appeared to be Texas Senator Phil Gramm, who didn't even make it to the New Hampshire primary. Going into this weekend, however, the vultures were circling over Dole's weary body. After winning the Delaware and New Hampshire primaries, millionaire publisher Steve Forbes held the lead in delegates, and populist/socialist/fascist Pat Buchanan had gone from loudmouth to a deadly serious contender for the nomination. Dole began to seem disoriented, lapsing into self-parodying rhetorical staccato and ambiguity about his platform.

Thanks to Strom ...
South Carolina was Dole's salvation. Anything less than victory would have put Dole in a tailspin, and sent the Republican party establishment (which won't accept any of his rivals) into spasms of panic. The state was loaded with the kind of social and religious conservatives and angry blue-collar voters who form the core of Pat Buchanan's support. Yet Dole was able to parlay endorsements from the state's Republican chieftains into a convincing win that helps restore some of his aura of inevitability.

... and Al the Pal
This week's schedule includes important contests in Georgia and several New England states on Tuesday, but New York's vote on Thursday could be Judgment Day for Dole. With the help of his ally, Republican Senator Alfonse D'Amato of New York, Dole engineered a major effort to keep his rivals off the ballot, hoping to lock up all its 102 delegates for himself. (Nine hundred and ninety six are needed for the nomination). A Dole blowout in New York puts him in superb shape to roll into Super Tuesday on March 12, where over 400 delegates are up for grabs, and blow everybody out of the water for good.

You can't shoot the Devil in the back ...
Now, keeping your opponents out of the game altogether is a great strategy -- if it works. Unfortunately for Dole, it didn't. A court challenge got Steve Forbes on the ballot statewide, and Pat Buchanan will be an option for voters in most districts. This begs the question posed in another fine movie, "The Usual Suspects," when a character explains why you don't shoot the Devil in the back: "What if you miss?" The answer, of course, is that very bad things happen to you. And New York voters are neither dumb nor likely to appreciate an attempt to limit their choices. So, now two forces will be at work to Dole's disadvantage:
1) Every one of those voters who resent the attempt to fix the ballot for Dole will now cast a vote against him.
2) Rather than be divided piecemeal by a full roster of his opponents, the anti-Dole vote will be fully channeled toward Forbes and Buchanan.

The dangers of warp speed
Because the primaries will streak by like the stars out the window, Dole is in deep trouble if New York goes sour. Super Tuesday comes less than a week later, and he would face the political equivalent of fourth down from his own goal line. There is almost no hope of recovery from a Super Tuesday disaster, not least because Dole is nearing the federal limit on campaign spending. Still, Dole looked to be on the verge of crumbling just days ago, and winning South Carolina may have given him a shot in the arm just in time. But if he is swept away in the blur of the March primaries, which afford little chance to recover from a stumble, Bob Dole will ironically be the victim of a system that was designed to quickly usher the ordained candidate to the nomination. And through all this speculation, one thing seems sure: if Dole is beaten out by Pat Buchanan or Steve Forbes, they'll be popping corks in the White House.